Exclusive-Water Looms as New Front in Mexico's Trade Negotiations With the US

Mexican officials are scrambling to come up with a plan to increase the amount of water the country sends to the United States because of growing concern that President Donald Trump could drag a dispute over an 81-year-old water treaty into trade negotiations, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

Under a 1944 treaty that outlines water sharing between the two countries through a network of interconnected dams and reservoirs, Mexico must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. from the Rio Grande every five years. An acre-foot of water is enough to fill about half an Olympic swimming pool.

The current five-year cycle is up in October, but Mexico has sent less than 30% of the required water, according to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission. Put another way, Mexico owes enough water to supply a mid-sized city for around 30 years.

Mexico contends that a historic drought fueled by climate change makes it impossible to fulfill its water commitments, a scenario for which the treaty offers leniency, allowing the water debt to be rolled over to the next five year cycle.

But that excuse has fallen on deaf ears among Texas Republicans who have publicly accused Mexico of being chronically delinquent in its water deliveries and flagrantly ignoring the treaty.

With the U.S.-Mexico relations already frayed over security, migration and tariffs, the two countries could now be on a collision course over water too, adding to Mexico's woes as it struggles to navigate a minefield of issues with the Trump administration. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum has said the country will continue negotiating with the U.S. in the coming weeks over tariffs imposed by Trump.

"It has become very political," said one Mexican source who works on water issues and spoke on condition of anonymity, adding that there are growing concerns on the Mexican side that Trump could end the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact over the water debt and what the U.S. sees as non-compliance.