USVI Population Shrank 18 Percent Since 2010
The U.S. Virgin Islands population is the lowest it’s been in decades, according to figures released Thursday from the 2020 U.S. Census. The total count for the territory is 87,146, which represents a decline of 18 percent from the 2010 population count of 106,405.
2021-10-29 14:57:53 - VI News Staff
Although the depth of the decline may be surprising, a decrease had been predicted, given the anecdotal evidence of an exodus after the closing of the Hovensa oil refinery early in the decade and again after the hurricanes of 2017. Statistics on public school enrollment, which dropped from 15,747 in the 2010-11 school year to 10,718 in 2018-19, also indicated a population decline.
But the 18 percent drop is a dramatic departure from recent years. The V.I. population had been increasing since sometime in the 1930s. From the 1930 to 1940 census, it rose 13.1 percent, from a total of 22,012 to 24,889 people. Subsequent census data – which is gathered every 10 years – showed the population continued to increase up until 2000 when it was 108,612. The increases, especially from 1950 through 1980, were commonly attributed largely to immigration from other islands.
The 2010 census marked the first time a decline was recorded in 70 years, and that drop was just 2 percent.
Frank Mills, director of the Eastern Caribbean Center at the University of the Virgin Islands and the coordinator of census operations in the Virgin Islands, said that community surveys that the center was conducting up until 2016 indicated the population was declining, but he was surprised by the depth of the drop. He thought the 2020 census results would reveal a total population somewhere in the “mid-90’s”, not as low as 87,146.
“We’re still looking at the data” to try to explain the reason behind the decline, he said, adding that the hurricanes and the refinery closure were major factors.
The territory’s shrinking numbers will have consequences for federal funding across a wide spectrum of agencies and programs, since federal grants and other funding is routinely based on population.
“It certainly means less money,” Mills said.
He’s concerned about another result too. Many of the statistics coming out of the Census are calculated per 100,000 persons. That way, the privacy of individuals is protected. Now that the territory has dropped below that mark, it won’t be included in some reports.