Active 2025 Hurricane Season With 56% Caribbean and 51% U.S. Landfall Odds Predicted by CSU
Researchers at Colorado State University are forecasting a notably active Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, driven by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions. The initial outlook anticipates 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes forming during the official season from June 1 to November 30.
2025-04-09 11:39:52 - VI News Staff
The report was presented during the National Tropical Weather Conference in Miami, Florida, where CSU researchers, along with meteorologists and emergency management professionals, gathered to discuss the upcoming season. This is the 42nd year CSU has issued its seasonal hurricane forecast, a program launched by the late Professor Emeritus Bill Gray in 1984.
According to the CSU team, the prediction is based on a combination of statistical modeling and analysis of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indicators. The models take into account up to four decades of historical data and integrate inputs from global meteorological agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici.
At the heart of the 2025 outlook is the presence of above-normal sea surface temperatures across the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These warmer waters are expected to persist into the peak of the hurricane season, contributing to favorable conditions for storm development.
“When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” the report explains. These weaker winds allow for a more unstable atmosphere and lower surface pressure, both of which enhance the probability of hurricane formation and intensification.
Lead author and senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach noted that this year’s seasonal indicators bear similarities to previous seasons such as 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017. “Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,” said Klotzbach. “While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”