Democratic senator's stroke exposes fragility of 50-50 Senate majority

(CNN)As if their stalled and tattered agenda wasn't proof enough, Democrats just got a poignant reminder of the precarious nature of life in a 50-50 Senate, especially ahead of an impending Supreme Court nomination.

After news broke Tuesday that New Mexico Sen. Ben Ray Luján suffered a stroke last week, there was palpable concern for a valued fellow senator and then relief among his colleagues that he was expected to make a full recovery.

At 49, Luján is one of the geriatric Senate's young bucks, yet his sudden hospitalization, at least for now, deprives Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of a functioning majority if he needs to call a short-notice vote.

And it offered a preview of more serious long-term implications for Democrats if even one of their number becomes temporarily or permanently incapacitated. Thoughts about the fragility of the chamber's delicate balance of power will have flashed across many minds on Tuesday afternoon. This consideration is especially acute since the Senate will soon begin to consider President Joe Biden's nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer. Renewed focus on the slim margin of error available to Democrats in the confirmation process also underscored why so many progressives were so itching for Breyer to retire. They are desperate to confirm a liberal justice while their Senate majority holds to avoid further bolstering the current 6-3 conservative majority on the high court.

Democrats believe they have a good chance to get at least a few GOP votes to confirm Biden's yet-to-be-announced nominee that would give them some breathing space. But given the stark polarization in Washington, it's not out of the question that tactical calculations could change if the political winds shift. Without Republican votes, they would need all 50 Democratic senators to vote in person to back the nomination.

There is a good case that Democrats outside Washington and some in the House didn't fully appreciate the complexities of working with a 50-50 Senate majority that requires every Democrat to form a simple majority, plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Democrats have learned reality the hard way, after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, both moderate Democrats, blocked Biden's vast social spending and climate program and a bid to change filibuster rules to reform electoral law.

Speed is therefore of the essence for Democrats to avoid any mishaps with the Supreme Court confirmation. Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin of Illinois said Tuesday that Biden was hoping for a brisk confirmation process of about 40 days once he's named his pick. If the President announces his nominee by the end of this month, that could give Luján two months or more of convalescence before a final vote if necessary.

Schumer moved quickly to shut down speculation about the resilience of the Democratic majority and quickly said that the priority was for Luján to recover. "We are all grateful that he will have a full recovery," the New York Democrat told reporters, before sending a message to calm Democratic nerves.

"We look forward to his quick return to the Senate and I believe the Senate will be able to carry forward with its business," Schumer said.

Several of Luján's other colleagues also stressed that he was expected to make a full recovery and should be back among them soon.

"I think what's important is that it's really easy for all of us in this business to put this place first," said Luján's fellow New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich. "My hope is that Ben Ray will put himself first for the next two weeks."