Gauge of the Economy Continues to Weaken in April

There was more data Monday suggesting a further weakening of the consumer spirit as a forward-looking gauge of the U.S. economy fell sharply in April after a downward revision to March’s reading.

The Conference Board’s leading economic index fell 1% to a reading of 99.4 (the measure is pegged to a base of 100 set in 2016) on a softening of some economic data and consumers’ expectations for the future health of the economy.

The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. “Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.”

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs on more than 70 countries, with some levies such as those on China being much higher than anticipated. However, Trump backtracked after the stock market suffered a massive sell-off, and he postponed most of them for 90 days. But consumer sentiment remains poor, although actual spending has held up.