Newest Forecast Predicts ‘Well Above-Average’ Hurricane Season
Colorado State University is calling for a “well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season” in its latest forecast, released Thursday.
2022-06-03 12:23:29 - VI News Staff
The probability of at least one major hurricane – meaning Category 3 or higher – tracking into the Caribbean is 65 percent, compared to an average of 42 percent for the last century, according to the new forecast.
That probability is 76 percent for the entire continental U.S. coastline (average is 52 percent), 51 percent for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average is 31 percent), and 50 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average is 30 percent), according to the forecast.
“We have increased our forecast from early April and now estimate that 2022 will have 10 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 20 named storms (average is 14.4), 95 named storm days (average is 69.4), 40 hurricane days (average is 27.0), five major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2), and 11 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 145 percent of the long-period average,” the report stated.
Colorado State’s forecast is in line with that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is calling for 14 to 21 named storms, with six to 10 of them becoming hurricanes with sustained winds at or above 74 mph, and three to six of them turning into major hurricanes. A major hurricane has sustained winds of 111 mph or above; that is, it is a Category 3, 4 or 5.
Thursday’s extended forecast, by Philip Klotzbach, Michael Bell and Alex DesRosiers of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State, attributes the increased threat to warmer than normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures, combined with weak La Niña conditions that are expected to persist through the peak of the season from August to October.
When El Niño dominates, strong upper winds from across the Atlantic shear storms before they can develop. When La Niña dominates, those winds are weaker.
“Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the report states.
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the report states.
To that end, the Virgin Islands government, its agencies, and federal partners from across the country gathered in the USVI last week to finalize preparation efforts in advance of hurricane season. In a simulation of real-life hurricane response, participants worked from Emergency Operations Centers on St. Croix, St. John and St. Thomas and Federal Emergency Management Agency facilities in the territory while practicing their ability to work together over a large area with degraded communications, according to a press release on Thursday from FEMA.
“For over two years, we’ve had lots of practice working with the federal government to beat COVID-19, and we know that practice will make our response better if a hurricane brings its winds and rains to our shores,” said Gov. Albert Bryan Jr. “Last week, GVI, led by VITEMA, worked together with FEMA to conduct multiple exercises to test and practice our hurricane response plans, and I have been briefed on their plans for the season. While we always have more work to do, I’m confident we are moving the territory in the right direction.”