NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season, Improves Forecasts for USVI and PR

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday released its outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting near-normal activity this year.

The forecast details a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season, extending from June 1 to November 30.

According to the report, forecasters are predicting 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) this year. Out of these, 5 to 9 could develop into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), with 1 to 4 potentially escalating to major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA expresses 70 percent confidence in these predictions.

NOAA's ongoing technological and scientific advancements have been lauded by Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo, who believes that these developments will significantly enhance the accuracy of hurricane forecasts and bolster preparedness for communities prone to Atlantic hurricanes.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to be less active compared to recent years due to a mix of competing factors that either suppress or fuel storm development, leading to an overall prediction of a near-normal season.

El Nino, which has the potential to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, is expected to develop this summer. This prediction follows three hurricane seasons influenced by La Nina. The potential influence of El Nino may be offset by conditions favorable to storm development in the tropical Atlantic Basin, such as an above-normal west African monsoon and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.